So far in 2024, the U.S. economy has traveled a winding road. As we began the year, expectations were for turbulence ahead, given stubbornly high inflation and interest rates, restrictive monetary policy from the Fed, and a slowdown in consumer and business spending. Instead, strength in hiring fueled consumer spending despite rising rates. Still, GDP growth slowed to 1.3 percent in the first quarter (from 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023), leading to more uncertainty on where the economy will go in the second half of the year.