As we deal with the daily rush of news and data—the elections, the Fed meeting, earnings, and so forth—it is easy to lose sight of the bigger picture. Yes, there is a lot going on. Some of it is good, some of it is bad, and most of it is somewhere in the middle. But if we step back a bit, we can see that, on the whole, we are returning as a country to something like normal, at least on an economic basis.
Commonwealth
Market Thoughts for November 2021 [Video]
After a difficult September, the markets saw a bounce in October. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P gained more than 7 percent, and the Dow was up almost 6 percent. These results were driven by the stabilization of key economic data. Job growth declined in September, but a higher October result is expected as labor demand remains strong. Plus, consumer confidence has stabilized.
Monday Update: GDP Growth Slows in Third Quarter
Last week, a number of important economic data releases gave us updates on consumer confidence, business spending, personal income and spending, and the third-quarter GDP report. The first look at third-quarter GDP growth showed that the pace of the economic recovery slowed during the quarter, largely driven by a slowdown in personal consumption growth. This will be another busy week for updates, with a focus on business confidence, the results from the Fed’s November meeting, and the October employment report.
Quick Hits on the Markets and Economy
I am still in Atlanta this morning, after a terrific watch party with about two dozen of our advisors, sponsors, and guests. It was great to see everyone and especially to meet some new people. That said, today is another travel day, headed back from Atlanta to Boston. So, let’s take some quick hits on news items that intrigued me.
Could the Job Market Get Even Tighter?
Thinking about the constraints I mentioned yesterday, I want to dig a bit deeper into the employment and jobs question. As I wrote last week, I expect the jobs market to stay tight. There are now more jobs out there than there are workers. Unless something drastic changes, that is likely to remain the case. As job growth continues to outpace workforce growth, that situation is likely to force changes, including increased automation.
Economy Making the Best of a Difficult Situation
It’s another day of travel for me, as I head to Atlanta to host a National Conference watch party for Commonwealth. Gathering together in Las Vegas, as we had originally planned for our National Conference, was simply too risky. Between full hospitals, the inability to host outdoor events, and the fact that there would be thousands of non-Commonwealth guests in our hotel, it simply didn’t make sense to have everyone take those risks.