Last week saw a number of important economic updates, with a focus on April’s international trade report, May’s consumer inflation report, and the preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report for June. Consumer inflation came in above economist estimates, but the markets largely shrugged off the news. This week will be another busy one, with updates on May’s retail sales, industrial production, and new home construction serving as potential highlights.
Commonwealth
Appearance on Nasdaq’s TradeTalks, June 15, 2021 [Video]
Yesterday I appeared on Nasdaq’s TradeTalks to discuss economic risks, the impact of inflation on the markets, and more. Watch the full segment.
The Dollar (Still) Isn’t Collapsing
The strength (or lack thereof) of the dollar is a perennial topic here on the blog. Looking at the past several years, I see “U.S. Dollar Still Failing to Collapse” (November 2015), “Should You Be Worried About the Strong Dollar?” (December 2016), and, after a bit of a hiatus, “The Dollar Is Not Collapsing” (July 2020). There are many other versions, of course. (Notably, I did a whole series on money and the dollar back in 2013.) But the message has consistently been this: exchange rates bounce up and down, but there is no reason to worry.
Did the Fed Do a U-Turn?
Yesterday, the Fed concluded its regular meeting and came out with the following shocking news: it might start to raise rates in the next two and a half years, instead of the next three years. Markets dropped, interest rates rose, and headlines highlighted the shift in Fed thinking. What’s behind this apparent change in plans? Let’s start by taking a look at what didn’t happen.
Will the Biogen Drug Approval Be a Boon for Biotech?
Last week, the FDA approved Biogen’s Alzheimer’s drug candidate, aducanumab (marketed as Aduhelm). This approval looks likely to be a watershed moment for the biotech industry. The shares of Biogen were halted for the announcement. And as anticipated, they popped once trading resumed.
Monday Update: Retail Sales Fall in May
Last week saw a number of important economic data releases, with a focus on retail sales and producer inflation in May, as well as the Fed’s June meeting. Retail sales fell by more than expected, but we saw an upward revision to April’s sales report that helps explain the May decline. This week will be busy once again, with May’s housing sales, durable goods orders, and personal income and spending reports serving as highlights.