Much of the commentary on recent issues—especially inflation—has focused on terrible reported numbers. As always, though, it is helpful to remember there is nothing sacred about those numbers. They have assumptions and biases built in, which are unavoidable. As analysts, we need to understand those assumptions and biases, so we can see when they are reasonable (and when they are not).
Commonwealth
Coronavirus Update: June 11, 2021 [Video]
This will be the last of the Coronavirus Update videos, at least for the foreseeable future. There will be one more written update, which will be posted on the blog on June 25.
Will the Fed Sit Tight—or Tighten Policy?
The regular meeting of the Fed starts today. Tomorrow, the Fed will issue a press release, describing any actions it decides to take, and hold a press conference where the chair, Jerome Powell, will take questions.
Monday Update: Consumer Prices Rise by More Than Expected
Last week saw a number of important economic updates, with a focus on April’s international trade report, May’s consumer inflation report, and the preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report for June. Consumer inflation came in above economist estimates, but the markets largely shrugged off the news. This week will be another busy one, with updates on May’s retail sales, industrial production, and new home construction serving as potential highlights.
Appearance on Nasdaq’s TradeTalks, June 15, 2021 [Video]
Yesterday I appeared on Nasdaq’s TradeTalks to discuss economic risks, the impact of inflation on the markets, and more. Watch the full segment.
The Dollar (Still) Isn’t Collapsing
The strength (or lack thereof) of the dollar is a perennial topic here on the blog. Looking at the past several years, I see “U.S. Dollar Still Failing to Collapse” (November 2015), “Should You Be Worried About the Strong Dollar?” (December 2016), and, after a bit of a hiatus, “The Dollar Is Not Collapsing” (July 2020). There are many other versions, of course. (Notably, I did a whole series on money and the dollar back in 2013.) But the message has consistently been this: exchange rates bounce up and down, but there is no reason to worry.