Commonwealth

Looking at the title, you could be forgiven for thinking I have finally reached that point in life where I start referring to things with “the”—”The Google,” for example. In fact, I am looking back to college, referencing a phenomenon known as the freshman 15: the 15 pounds you gained when you started eating at the dining hall. The pandemic has had the same effect on me, but even worse. Of course, being an overachiever, I wasn’t going to settle for just 19 pounds.

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Today marks, in many ways, the birthday of my profession. On May 26, 1896, Charles Dow first published a list of 12 industrial companies, combining their prices in an index for the first public index of the stock market. Note that phrase, because a standard of measurement—an index—was the necessary first step in transforming a market of stocks (i.e., individual companies) into a stock market. Before, we had a bunch of trees, and it was hard for investors to see the forest. Dow put the forest front and center with his index.

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From a medical perspective, is the pandemic over? The answer is simple: I don’t know. The same is true if we look at it on a global basis: I don’t know. But when we look at the U.S. and when we consider the economic—rather than the medical—effects, then I think the answer is pretty clearly yes. We are now in the post-pandemic era.

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Last week saw a number of economic updates, with a focus on housing, the minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting, and the weekly initial jobless claims report. This will be another busy week for updates, with news to come on consumer confidence in May and April’s durable goods orders and personal income and spending reports.

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Banks have been deeply out of favor for a long time. In fact, you can see in the chart below just how poorly the S&P 500 Financials Index has performed compared with the rest of the index in this century. Bank stocks had barely started showing signs of life after a lost decade since the great financial crisis when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. The Fed quickly sprang into action and brought the federal funds rate back to the floor after barely taking it halfway up to the pre-2008 level. Economic activity shut down and millions lost their jobs. Banks paid a price yet again, as their stocks were one of the worst hit when the pandemic brought the world to a grinding halt in 2020.

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As we discussed yesterday, the current inflation data simply is not that scary. Yes, there are signs of inflation, and the most recent numbers were startling. But when you break down those numbers, take out the pandemic effects, and normalize over a longer time period, inflation is pretty much where it was in 2018 and 2019.