It was a mixed bag for the markets in May, with the Dow up more than 2 percent, the S&P 500 up slightly, and the Nasdaq down. On the medical front, case growth and death rates declined, and more than 4 of 10 people are now fully vaccinated. With fading medical risks, the economy continued to improve. Layoffs are trending down, and consumer confidence remains close to pre-pandemic levels.
Commonwealth
Monday Update (on Tuesday): Another Post-Pandemic Low for Initial Jobless Claims
Last week saw several important economic data releases, with the weekly initial jobless claims report and the April personal income and spending reports serving as highlights. Initial unemployment claims fell for the fourth week in a row, providing an encouraging sign for the labor market recovery. This week, which is short due to the holiday, will be relatively quiet, with updates focusing on business confidence and employment.
Positive Medical and Economic Trends Continue in May
Given how much things have improved on the medical front, I will now be doing two pandemic updates a month. The video update will appear on the second Friday of the month, while this written update will appear on the last Friday of the month. Have a great holiday weekend!
Losing the COVID 19
Looking at the title, you could be forgiven for thinking I have finally reached that point in life where I start referring to things with “the”—”The Google,” for example. In fact, I am looking back to college, referencing a phenomenon known as the freshman 15: the 15 pounds you gained when you started eating at the dining hall. The pandemic has had the same effect on me, but even worse. Of course, being an overachiever, I wasn’t going to settle for just 19 pounds.
Happy Birthday to the Dow!
Today marks, in many ways, the birthday of my profession. On May 26, 1896, Charles Dow first published a list of 12 industrial companies, combining their prices in an index for the first public index of the stock market. Note that phrase, because a standard of measurement—an index—was the necessary first step in transforming a market of stocks (i.e., individual companies) into a stock market. Before, we had a bunch of trees, and it was hard for investors to see the forest. Dow put the forest front and center with his index.
Is the Pandemic Over?
From a medical perspective, is the pandemic over? The answer is simple: I don’t know. The same is true if we look at it on a global basis: I don’t know. But when we look at the U.S. and when we consider the economic—rather than the medical—effects, then I think the answer is pretty clearly yes. We are now in the post-pandemic era.