Commonwealth

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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I’m going to try something new today. Rather than pick a specific topic to talk about, I’d like to look at the past week and discuss what everything means going forward. When I give talks, the usual title is “Beyond the Numbers,” where I present not only the data but what it means. Indeed, there are a lot of numbers out there every week, and not all of them mean anything. Of those that do, quite a few mean something different than what most people think. So, let’s take a look at what happened in the past week and what it means in the medium to longer term.

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After a strong January, markets softened in February. U.S. markets were down by low single digits, international markets dropped, and emerging markets performed worst of all. The primary drivers were the disappointing inflation data and rising longer-term interest rates. Still, job growth exceeded expectations, and service sector business confidence bounced back.

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Over the past two weeks, markets have been down between 4 percent and 5 percent, and worries about the economy and inflation have been growing. As a result, I’ve been getting questions as to whether it is time to start worrying about the resumption of last year’s bear market. While the recent volatility may well continue, and there are indeed things to keep an eye on, I don’t think so. Here’s why.

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Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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When you look at the news, there is a lot going on. Between politics and geopolitics, the macro environment is more unstable than usual. We see the same on the economic front, for both macro and micro reasons. Economic growth is down and up. Job growth is up—or is it? Consumer and business confidence are down—or are they? And, of course, inflation and long-term interest rates have been trending down—until recently, when they started trending up again.

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