Commonwealth

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

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After a tough December, the markets rallied in January. Fears about inflation faded, and hopes that the Fed would hike rates more slowly—or even start cutting them—dominated markets as signs of economic weakness appeared. But this bad economic news was good news, as long-term rates pulled back, supporting financial markets.

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Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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Let’s get the headline out of the way. The number of new jobs expected in January’s jobs report was around 188,000, down from the prior month’s 223,000. But the actual number came in at—wait for it—more than half a million (517,000 to be exact), which is more than double last month. This is an astonishing beat. And what is even more surprising is that the headline beat is only part of the story.

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After a tough December, both U.S. and international markets showed gains in January. The primary drivers were the continued drop in inflation and the decline in longer-term interest rates. Despite the market gains, the economy showed signs of slowing, with consumer spending dropping for the second month in a row and a pullback in business confidence and investment.

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