Yesterday’s CPI report came in hotter than expected. There had been a general sense that inflation was peaking and that, while it remained high, we were starting to see signs of a sustained downtrend. But the latest report showed that the end of the tunnel is still too far away to see any real light.
Commonwealth
Economic Risk Factor Update: October 2022 [SlideShare]
My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.
What Will Q3 2022 Earnings Look Like?
When you look at expectations for corporate earnings for the third quarter, you get a bunch of mixed messages. On one hand, the economy is (supposedly) sinking fast, hit by rate hikes and inflation. More, companies are struggling with the labor shortage, with wages rising sharply and, in many cases, labor simply not available. Between a slower economy and a labor shortage—not to mention the problems created by the strong dollar—you would expect earnings to take a sharp hit. Indeed, we have seen a number of downward revisions to analyst expectations. On the other hand, despite the lower expectations, earnings are in fact still expected to grow, which doesn’t seem consistent with the narrative at the economic level. What’s going on?
Economic Release Snapshot: Unemployment Falls in September
Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.
Looking Back at the Markets in Q3 and Ahead to Q4 2022
An already weak third quarter was capped by a sharp September drop in markets. The S&P 500 lost 9.21 percent for the month and 4.88 percent for the quarter; the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 8.76 percent for the month and 6.17 percent for the quarter; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 10.44 percent for the month and 3.91 percent for the quarter. Markets resumed their downward trend in August and September after a bounce early in the quarter. Internationally, we saw the same behavior, with both developed and emerging markets down sharply in September and for the quarter. So, let’s take a look back at what drove these declines and then evaluate what it means going forward.
Is the Labor Market Weakening? A Jobs Report Preview
The latest jobs market headlines have been discouraging. One notable fact is that the number of jobs available declined by the largest amount on record, by almost 1 million, in one month. That generated a lot of hand-wringing. Another sign of potential weakness was the recent ADP employment report, which came in yesterday at 208,000, below the recent official number. So, is the job market really getting that weak?
Olivia has joined Riverstone Wealth Partners providing knowledge gained from her 15 plus years in management. Olivia has provided services within the financial industry, mortgage industry, and in the non-profit sector. Olivia thrives on providing stellar customer service, accomplishing all goals set before her, and doing the right thing. Olivia’s degree in Business Management allowed her to take on roles that ultimately led her to Riverstone Wealth Partners. Olivia is currently pursuing another degree with an emphasizes in Human Resources, which she has learned over time… is her passion!
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Ashley has been working in the customer service field since she started her first job at age 16. For the past ten years she worked in an office setting handling accounts payable and receivable as well as some receptionist work. She is very excited to learn more about the investment field.
Alec joined Riverstone after starting out his post college career on the operations side of an international logistics company working as an account executive. Graduating with a BA in Economics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, he quickly developed a strong interest in the financial world. A lifetime resident of the Chicagoland area, Alec is an avid fan of his hometown sports teams. He is also an enthusiast of outdoor activities like fishing, camping, and hiking whenever possible.
Carol has a wide variety of experiences and has worked mainly with not-for-profit organizations. She spent 20 years in fundraising and 15 years teaching in the Illinois school system while she raised her younger children. Carol lives in Sugar Grove with her husband, Ron, and their Golden Retriever, Charley. She has four children and two grandchildren. When she’s not working, Carol enjoys spending time with friends and family, running, fishing, bible study, and watching her grandchildren play sports.
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