Commonwealth

The other day, I wrote a post about how, with expectations very hawkish for the Fed, the thing to watch for in the latest Fed meeting was whether Chair Jay Powell managed to sneak in some hidden dovishness. He could have said, for example, that the Fed remains data dependent, suggesting that it would ease if the data improved. He could have said, for instance, that there were signs that inflation is moderating. He could have said a lot of things.

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So, what will the Fed do at its latest meeting? The short version is that almost everyone thinks it will raise rates by 75 bps (or 3/4 of a percent). Almost, in this case, means that a minority of people think the Fed will raise rates by more, like a full percentage point. The takeaway is that everyone does expect rates to go up—and by an amount that, prior to the past couple of months, would have been shockingly large.

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Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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We’re excited to roll out a new and improved format for our Monthly Market Risk Update (just like we did with our Economic Risk Factor Update last week). Each month, we will continue to review the biggest market risk factors, but we’ll do so in a SlideShare format we hope you will find both easy to read and informative. Let’s take a closer look.

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Yesterday’s inflation print was a big surprise—a bad one. Yet, looking at the headlines, you could be forgiven for wondering why. The headline CPI, after all, increased by only 0.1 percent, after being flat the prior month. If we annualize those two months, the inflation rate would be only 0.6 percent per year, which is the opposite of what everyone is panicking about. It isn’t that simple, of course. But given that and the fact that inflation for the past 12 months was down from 8.5 percent to 8.3 percent, it would seem inflation is slowing. So, why the panic?

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Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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