After a brief recovery, it looks like the market decline may have resumed. Although we never quite got to the 20 percent bear market threshold for the S&P 500 in the previous decline, it now looks like we are headed down again, so we might well get there. Once we get to an official bear market, the question then becomes how much lower we might go. Indeed, those are the top questions I am getting right now: how bad can this get—and when will it be over?
Commonwealth
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2022
My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!
Monday Update: Unexpected Job Growth in May
There were several important economic data releases last week, with a focus on business and consumer confidence as well as the May employment report. The jobs report was a highlight, as more jobs than expected were added during the month. This will be another busy week of updates, with reports covering international trade, consumer inflation, and consumer sentiment.
Looking Back at the Markets in May and Ahead to June 2022
Markets stabilized in May after one of the worst months since the start of the pandemic. While it wasn’t a great month, after the terrible start to the year, any improvement was welcome. U.S. markets were mixed, with the Dow and S&P 500 up slightly, while the Nasdaq was down but not nearly as much as in prior months. International markets and fixed income also showed small gains.
Market Thoughts for June 2022 [Video]
Markets started to stabilize in May. The Dow and S&P 500 ended the month with small gains, while the Nasdaq’s loss was small by recent standards. International markets edged up a bit more than U.S. markets, while fixed income showed gains. The primary driver here was interest rates, which showed signs of stabilizing. Further, hiring remained strong, supporting spending growth, and business investment was healthy.
Monday Update (on Tuesday): Personal Spending Beats Expectations in April
Last week’s important economic data releases included a look at April’s durable goods orders report and the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting. April’s personal income and spending reports were a highlight, as spending beat expectations for the month. This week’s highlights will include reports on consumer and business confidence and employment in May.