Today’s post is going to be a short one because there is simply too much uncertainty right now to make a principled argument about pretty much anything. Interest rates have bounced back up to levels above 2 percent. Will they stay there? Depends on what happens in Ukraine. Stocks are staying somewhat below, but not far below, where they were when the invasion started. Will they go up or down? Pretty much depends on what happens in Ukraine. Oil prices, consumer confidence, inflation, and so forth are all pretty much the same story. We are all waiting on events.
Commonwealth
Monday Update: Consumer Inflation on the Rise
Several important economic updates were released last week, with a focus on international trade, consumer inflation, and consumer sentiment. The February consumer inflation report drew the most market attention, as it showed that inflationary pressure continued to rise. This will be a very busy week of updates with scheduled reports that will cover producer inflation, retail sales, the housing market, industrial production, and the March Fed meeting.
Sticker Shock: Assessing the Real Cost of Gas
Have you experienced sticker shock at the pump recently? Chances are, you probably noticed a price hike the last time you topped off your tank. According to the Energy Information Administration, the price of conventional gasoline has risen 57 percent in the past year, and consumers are feeling the squeeze.
Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2022
My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!
Economic Risk Factor Update: March 2022
My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!
Looking Back at the Markets in February and Ahead to March 2022
After a terrible January for the markets, February continued the decline, with fears about inflation and Fed rate increases dominating the start of the month, only to be superseded by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Although the Covid-19 news continued to improve, by the end of the month, markets had moved on from medical risks to economic and geopolitical fears. Looking forward, those are the risks that are likely to dominate, as Covid-19, while still with us, has left both the headlines and, apparently, the markets.