One of the major current risks to the market is the Fed’s tightening of policy. Much has been written about the Fed’s plans to raise rates, to start downsizing its balance sheet, and so forth. But what has been missing so far is the fact that many of the changes have already been factored in by the market—and what the market seems to be expecting is not really in line with the headlines.
Commonwealth
Wordle, Investing, and Russia/Ukraine: What’s the Connection?
Three hot topics at once. Talk about efficiency! Beyond efficiency, though, I do think there is a fairly deep connection here—and one that is worth talking about right now.
Monday Update: Consumer Inflation Accelerates in January
There were a number of important economic data releases last week, with a focus on international trade, consumer prices, and consumer sentiment. The reports showed that continued high levels of inflationary pressure weighed on consumer sentiment to start February. This will be a very busy week of updates, with reports scheduled to cover producer inflation, retail sales, industrial production, new home construction, and the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting.
Taper Tantrum Part 2?
Yesterday, the market sell-off continued, reportedly driven by a higher-than-expected inflation report and a comment by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard that he wanted to hike rates even faster than the market had been expecting. For a market that was already nervous about inflation and rates, it was a one-two punch. The Fed is being forced to act, by inflation, and at least one Fed member is very willing to hike rates quickly in response.
Monthly Market Risk Update: February 2022
My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!
Economic Risk Factor Update: February 2022
My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!