January was a terrible month. Worries about economic damage from the Omicron wave were combined with the Fed’s perceived decision to start raising interest rates based on inflation levels at a 40-year high. Stocks were knocked down around the world. Tech stocks got hit especially hard, but even fixed income was down. It really was a terrible month.
Commonwealth
Monday Update: January Jobs Report Surges Past Expectations
Last week’s important economic data releases included January’s business confidence and employment reports. The January jobs report was a highlight, as it showed the economy added significantly more jobs than expected throughout the end of 2021 and start of 2022. Among the updates to come this week, the focus will be on international trade, consumer prices, and consumer sentiment.
Strangest Jobs Report Ever?
Wow. I have rarely been so wrong about an economic report—or so glad to be wrong. And it wasn’t just me. The range of expected values for today’s jobs report was roughly between -400,000 and +250,000. Everyone was very wrong as it came in at +467,000. This was a much, much larger-than-expected gain, and it clearly shows there is something going on that analysts are missing.
Signs Say Terrible Jobs Report Ahead
The official jobs report comes out this Friday. Expectations are for another slowdown, with about 175,000 jobs added, down from 199,000 in December. With everything that is going on, especially the number of people who have the Omicron variant and are presumably not at work, that would be a great result. Unfortunately, the real number is likely to be well below that and will probably be negative—maybe significantly so.
Russia-Ukraine Tensions: Implications for Investors
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are showing no signs of abating. The geopolitical implications of further escalation could be quite dire and complicated. Although the deadlock may be resolved through diplomacy, we are watching for the impact on asset prices if the conflict escalates. Energy and commodity markets could be in the immediate line of fire, but repercussions may also be felt in the region’s equity and fixed income markets. Finally, if the situation worsens, the ripple effects could be more broad-based and have an impact on global inflation expectations and monetary policy.
Market Thoughts for February 2022 [Video]
After a strong close to 2021, markets pulled back to start the year, with U.S. indices dropping between 3 and 10 percent. On the medical front, the Omicron wave continued. As case growth rose to new highs, consumer and business confidence took a hit. Finally, January reports showed inflation at a 40-year high, and the Fed announced a rate hike in March was very likely.
Olivia has joined Riverstone Wealth Partners providing her expertise gained from her 15 plus years in management. Olivia has provided services within the financial industry, mortgage industry, and in the non-profit sector. Olivia thrives on providing stellar customer service, accomplishing all goals set before her, and doing the right thing. Olivia’s degree in Business Management allowed her to take on roles that ultimately led her to Riverstone Wealth Partners. Olivia is currently pursuing another degree with an emphasizes in Human Resources, which she has learned over time… is her passion!
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Ashley has been working in the customer service field since she started her first job at age 16. For the past ten years she worked in an office setting handling accounts payable and receivable as well as some receptionist work. She is very excited to learn more about the investment field.
Alec joined Riverstone after starting out his post college career on the operations side of an international logistics company working as an account executive. Graduating with a BA in Economics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, he quickly developed a strong interest in the financial world. A lifetime resident of the Chicagoland area, Alec is an avid fan of his hometown sports teams. He is also an enthusiast of outdoor activities like fishing, camping, and hiking whenever possible.
Carol has a wide variety of experiences and has worked mainly with not-for-profit organizations. She spent 20 years in fundraising and 15 years teaching in the Illinois school system while she raised her younger children. Carol lives in Sugar Grove with her husband, Ron, and their Golden Retriever, Charley. She has four children and two grandchildren. When she’s not working, Carol enjoys spending time with friends and family, running, fishing, bible study, and watching her grandchildren play sports.
Wealth Advisor
Wealth Advisor / Registered Principal
Wealth Advisor
Wealth Advisor / Registered Principal
Wealth Advisor
Wealth Advisor Assistant
Registered Relationship Assistant