Commonwealth

Yesterday, I got two emails requesting a response to the current market pullback. I received another couple of emails referring to a prediction (by a very well-known investor) that the stock market was now inevitably poised for a 50 percent decline. Clearly, the anxiety level is high, which makes sense given the multitude of worries and things that could go wrong. We have the Omicron wave, inflation, interest rates, a potential war in Ukraine, and on and on. Is this the end of days—again?

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Now that we’re two years into the pandemic, analysts have a lot more context than we did at the start. We have seen multiple waves of the virus, have watched the economy react in real time, and have a sense of what the policy responses are likely to be. As such, we could look back on history for some guidance as to what was likely to happen with the winter Delta wave—and that guidance by and large worked.

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The panic of the day is the news about interest rates. The headlines state (correctly) that rates have moved up sharply in recent days. They state (correctly) that stocks have pulled back, noting this fact is due to that increase (which is possibly but not necessarily true). And they state (incorrectly, I believe) that higher rates are going to derail the economy and the markets, in that order.

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There were a number of important economic data reports last week, with a focus on December’s inflation and retail sales reports. Retail sales came in well below expectations, as inflation and the Omicron variant weighed on spending during the month. This will be another busy week for updates, with a focus on the housing sector.

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The year 2021 was all about supply shortages—from semiconductor chips to construction materials and everything in between. As supply chain logjams ease in 2022, some goods will get back to a normal balance. Others may swing to an oversupply. Sectors and industries that benefit from economic activity in which supply rises to meet demand may continue to reward investors in the near term. The business cycles for some companies may be at or near peak, however, so investors must watch for potential signs of a downturn. 

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We are just starting earnings season, when companies will be reporting how much money they made in the fourth quarter of last year. This is always an important time, as stock values depend crucially on how much money companies make. But this season will be especially important.

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