Last week was relatively quiet in terms of economic updates, with only three major data releases. In June, service sector confidence remained in healthy expansionary territory despite a slightly larger-than-expected pullback for the ISM Services index during the month. This week will be packed with updates, with June’s inflation and industrial production reports and the first look at consumer sentiment in July serving as highlights.
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Economic Risk Factor Update: July 2021
My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!
Looking Back at the Markets in June and Ahead to July 2021
As we close out the first half of the year, we know a couple of things. First, the U.S. economy is almost entirely reopened following the pandemic shutdown. Although we are not yet fully back, the healing process continues. The story for the rest of the year in the U.S. will be about managing the risks, staying open, and growing our economy. As we are largely past the pandemic, the challenge ahead will be keeping the progress going.
2021 Midyear Outlook [Video]
As we head into the second half of 2021, the virus appears to be contained at the national level. The declining medical risks have been good for the economy, with consumer and business activity back to pre-pandemic levels. Markets have celebrated the good news by hitting all-time highs. We’re on the road back to normal—but will risks like labor shortages, supply-chain gaps, and inflation derail the recovery? Watch my 2021 Midyear Outlook video to find out.
Monday Update (on Tuesday): Hiring Accelerates in June
There were a number of important economic data releases last week, with better-than-expected results for consumer confidence and hiring in June serving as highlights. The June jobs report showed that hiring accelerated during the month, demonstrating the positive impact from eased restrictions at the state and local levels. This week will be relatively quiet, with only three major economic updates scheduled.
Market Thoughts for July 2021 [Video]
June was a mixed month for the markets. In the U.S., the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were up, but the Dow ticked down. We saw the same trend internationally, with developed markets falling even as emerging markets moved ahead. On the economic front, business confidence remains at or close to all-time highs. Still, the problems of success (labor shortages and supply chain issues) loom large.