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Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2021

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

Equity markets started off strong in May, but volatility later in the month led to a partial pullback. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) indices both hit all-time highs earlier in the month before suffering from volatility. Despite the turbulence along the way, the S&P 500 gained 0.70 percent during the month, and the DJIA saw a solid 2.21 percent return. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.44 percent, as the heavy technology weighting led to additional volatility for the index.

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Putting 1-Year Stats in Perspective

Much of the commentary on recent issues—especially inflation—has focused on terrible reported numbers. As always, though, it is helpful to remember there is nothing sacred about those numbers. They have assumptions and biases built in, which are unavoidable. As analysts, we need to understand those assumptions and biases, so we can see when they are reasonable (and when they are not).

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Monday Update: Consumer Prices Rise by More Than Expected

Last week saw a number of important economic updates, with a focus on April’s international trade report, May’s consumer inflation report, and the preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report for June. Consumer inflation came in above economist estimates, but the markets largely shrugged off the news. This week will be another busy one, with updates on May’s retail sales, industrial production, and new home construction serving as potential highlights.

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