There is a lot riding on the monthly jobs report, which comes out tomorrow. For the economy, more jobs are good: more workers, more wage income, more spending ability, and so forth. There’s no real downside. For financial markets, however, a strong report would be problematic. Those workers—earning and spending their wages—add to demand, which adds to inflation. So, a strong report would be bad news for the Fed, for interest rates, and for markets. This is the problem we face tomorrow.
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Looking Back at the Markets in Q1 and Ahead to Q2 2023
After a weak February, markets rallied in March. U.S. markets were up by low single digits, while bond markets were in the same range. International markets also showed modest gains, with developed markets about the same as the U.S. and emerging markets doing slightly better. For the quarter as a whole, the Nasdaq did best and moved into a bull market by some measures, followed by developed international markets and the S&P 500. This was a stronger start to 2023 than most had expected, and it may signal how the rest of the year will play out.
Market Thoughts for April 2023 [Video]
U.S. markets were up by low single digits in March. For the quarter, the Nasdaq performed best, followed by international developed markets and the S&P 500. The primary driver was the progress on inflation, which is well below where it started the year. Still, fears of a broader banking crisis rattled markets after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Federal action resolved the immediate concern, but weak balance sheets could signal tighter financial conditions ahead.
Economic Release Snapshot: Personal Spending Rises in February
Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.
What Mattered This Quarter? Rates, Recession, and Politics
It has been an eventful first quarter of the year. When we started 2023, expectations were for a recession in fairly short order, for markets to continue to tank, and for the news to remain bad. Instead, we end the quarter in a much better place than we started. Economic growth is significantly positive. Markets are up, with the Nasdaq now in a new bull market. And while there have been significant negative events—the banking crisis comes to mind—the actual effects we are seeing from those events simply are not that bad.
Pay Attention When the Job Growth Dog Barks
There has been surprisingly little worry reported by advisors and readers in the past couple of weeks. With the headlines in play—bank failures, a recession coming, commercial real estate starting to crash, and so forth—I would have expected more concerns. But it seems that people are realizing that, despite all the headlines, things are actually not all that bad.
Olivia has joined Riverstone Wealth Partners providing knowledge gained from her 15 plus years in management. Olivia has provided services within the financial industry, mortgage industry, and in the non-profit sector. Olivia thrives on providing stellar customer service, accomplishing all goals set before her, and doing the right thing. Olivia’s degree in Business Management allowed her to take on roles that ultimately led her to Riverstone Wealth Partners. Olivia is currently pursuing another degree with an emphasizes in Human Resources, which she has learned over time… is her passion!
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Ashley has been working in the customer service field since she started her first job at age 16. For the past ten years she worked in an office setting handling accounts payable and receivable as well as some receptionist work. She is very excited to learn more about the investment field.
Alec joined Riverstone after starting out his post college career on the operations side of an international logistics company working as an account executive. Graduating with a BA in Economics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, he quickly developed a strong interest in the financial world. A lifetime resident of the Chicagoland area, Alec is an avid fan of his hometown sports teams. He is also an enthusiast of outdoor activities like fishing, camping, and hiking whenever possible.
Carol has a wide variety of experiences and has worked mainly with not-for-profit organizations. She spent 20 years in fundraising and 15 years teaching in the Illinois school system while she raised her younger children. Carol lives in Sugar Grove with her husband, Ron, and their Golden Retriever, Charley. She has four children and two grandchildren. When she’s not working, Carol enjoys spending time with friends and family, running, fishing, bible study, and watching her grandchildren play sports.
Wealth Advisor
Wealth Advisor / Registered Principal
Wealth Advisor
Wealth Advisor / Registered Principal
Wealth Advisor
Wealth Advisor Assistant
Registered Relationship Assistant