News

Unlike last week, when there really wasn’t much news, we did get quite a bit of data this week. And it was all positive. 

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Brad here. We just published our Midyear Outlook, and as you saw yesterday, we remain cautious about the market for several reasons. At the same time, over the longer term, the market does tend to go up—and even in the shorter term, there are alternative possibilities to consider.

For most people, that means focusing on the risk, and that’s fine—but it misses half, and possibly more, of the big picture. So, for a look at the potential upside, here’s a great piece from my colleague Tom Logue on why the market may well keep rising, especially over the next year.

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1969 is often remembered as one of the biggest years in pop culture history. Broadway Joe Namath guaranteed his upstart AFL Jets would win the Super Bowl—and then went out and did just that. The Beatles played together in public for the last time on a London rooftop. Neil Armstrong took one small step for man and one giant leap for mankind. About 400,000 people descended on a farm in New York for the Woodstock Music Festival. And finally, the Miracle Mets won the World Series. 

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Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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In truth, not much happened on the news front this week. The housing data did come in better than expected, which was good news and supports the idea that a recession is still some ways away. But, as we discussed last week, we kind of knew that already. Fed Chair Powell testified that the central bank is still determined to get inflation down to the 2 percent target and that it plans to keep rates high—and maybe raise them further. Again, we knew that because he has been saying it over and over for more than a year now. This week was more about olds than news. 

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Heading into 2023, a looming recession dominated the headlines. Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi quipped at the time, “CEOs are falling over themselves to say we’re falling into a recession. . . . Every person on TV says recession. Every economist says recession. I’ve never seen anything like it.” Fast-forward to today at the midyear point of 2023, and the data is telling a different story.

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