Over the past two weeks, markets have been down between 4 percent and 5 percent, and worries about the economy and inflation have been growing. As a result, I’ve been getting questions as to whether it is time to start worrying about the resumption of last year’s bear market. While the recent volatility may well continue, and there are indeed things to keep an eye on, I don’t think so. Here’s why.
News
Economic Release Snapshot: Personal Income and Spending Rise in January
Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.
What Matters for the Economy and Markets? 4 Signals to Watch
When you look at the news, there is a lot going on. Between politics and geopolitics, the macro environment is more unstable than usual. We see the same on the economic front, for both macro and micro reasons. Economic growth is down and up. Job growth is up—or is it? Consumer and business confidence are down—or are they? And, of course, inflation and long-term interest rates have been trending down—until recently, when they started trending up again.
Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer and Producer Prices on the Rise
Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.
Yield Curve Inversions Lead to Recession: Fact Check
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” — Mark Twain (probably?)
The above quote is a wonderful self-referential example of itself. When I was thinking of it and looked it up, I was quite certain that it was from Mark Twain. But on review, that isn’t certain. So, let’s add this one to the list of things we need to be careful of.
Monthly Market Risk Update: February 2023 [SlideShare]
My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.