My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.
News
The Debt Ceiling: We’ve Seen This Movie Before
With the new Congress taking office—and specifically the extended time it took for the House Republicans to elect their new speaker—markets are increasingly focused on the potential effects of politics on the economy this year. I have had several questions about the debt ceiling in particular, so let’s take some time and think through what all of this might mean.
Economic Release Snapshot: Business Confidence Drops
Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.
Looking Back at the Markets in December and Ahead to January 2023
December saw a sell-off, reversing some of the bounce from October and November and leaving markets up for the quarter. Unfortunately, that only reversed a small part of the damage done earlier in the year. 2022 closed as one of the worst years in recent memory for financial markets.
Angst Is in the Air: A December Jobs Report Preview
As we wait for tomorrow’s jobs report, there is a lot of angst in the air. One of the most predicted recessions in history is very likely to hit this year. The manufacturing business sentiment survey yesterday was down, seemingly confirming that outcome. The Fed is looking to substantially weaken the labor market, in search of lower inflation, and according to the meeting notes released yesterday, is going to keep raising rates until that happens. All of the signs are that the jobs market will weaken significantly. But the question remains, is the job market actually going to weaken?
Market Thoughts for January 2023 [Video]
December closed out a tough year for markets. The U.S. indices showed single-digit declines for the month, capping off drops for the year of about 7 percent for the Dow, more than 18 percent for the S&P 500, and 32 percent for the Nasdaq. The primary drivers were rising inflation and Fed rate increases. Still, job growth remained healthy, and consumer spending and business investment rose.
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Ashley has been working in the customer service field since she started her first job at age 16. For the past ten years she worked in an office setting handling accounts payable and receivable as well as some receptionist work. She is very excited to learn more about the investment field.
Alec joined Riverstone after starting out his post college career on the operations side of an international logistics company working as an account executive. Graduating with a BA in Economics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, he quickly developed a strong interest in the financial world. A lifetime resident of the Chicagoland area, Alec is an avid fan of his hometown sports teams. He is also an enthusiast of outdoor activities like fishing, camping, and hiking whenever possible.
Carol has a wide variety of experiences and has worked mainly with not-for-profit organizations. She spent 20 years in fundraising and 15 years teaching in the Illinois school system while she raised her younger children. Carol lives in Sugar Grove with her husband, Ron, and their Golden Retriever, Charley. She has four children and two grandchildren. When she’s not working, Carol enjoys spending time with friends and family, running, fishing, bible study, and watching her grandchildren play sports.
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