After a strong rebound in July, markets pulled back again in August. U.S. and developed international markets ended the month down by 3 percent to 5 percent, and fixed income declined. The primary driver here was rising rates. Higher rates provide for lower stock market values, and with fears of a recession taking down expected earnings, the market had a double whammy. Still, there was good economic news. Job growth beat expectations, and consumer and producer inflation showed signs of peaking.
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Will Job Growth Stay Strong?
I have been saying for some time now that, as long as job growth remains strong, a recession simply isn’t likely. So far, that has played out, but the same question comes up every month: will job growth remain strong? We’ll find out on Friday whether that is still the case.
Why Is the Market Going Down?
The big question on everyone’s mind is, why is the market going down? The answer, in short, is interest rates. Interest rates are up. When rates go up, stocks tend to go down. And this takes us to the next question: why are interest rates up—and will they continue to rise?
Economic Release Snapshot: Spending Growth Declines in July
Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.
Is Housing Headed for a Significant Correction?
After a massive surge in homebuying throughout the pandemic, cracks are starting to show. Demand has begun to wane, while supply is increasing at the fastest pace in decades. So, will we see a moderation in prices if supply continues to outpace demand in the latter half of the year and into 2023?
Long Live Asset Allocation?
What a whirlwind year it has been in the financial markets. Not since 1994 have investors seen simultaneous declines in both equities and fixed income, prompting many to question the viability of holding both in a portfolio context. Negative performance across asset classes during the first half of 2022 challenged even the most ardent believers of diversification and modern portfolio theory, leaving many of us to wonder whether we are entering a new paradigm for asset allocation. Should investors abandon the view that stocks and bonds can provide complementary exposures in a portfolio? Disclaimer: I don’t think so.