It was a relatively quiet week for economic updates, with only one major data release last week. Existing home sales fell in May, marking four consecutive months of slower sales and highlighting the headwinds for the housing industry created by rising prices and mortgage rates. This will be a busier week of updates, with reports scheduled that will touch on business spending, consumer and manufacturer confidence, and personal income and spending.
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Catherine Crowe McMillan: A Life Well Lived
Today will not be the usual economic content, as I am out of the office for my mother’s memorial service. She passed away almost a month ago, suddenly from a stroke, after fighting Parkinson’s disease for several years. My dad and my family are doing well, all things considered, but today will be a hard one.
Politics and Investing
First, a confession. I handled a recent comment on the blog badly. A reader wrote in with a question that I read as a political diatribe, and I dismissed it without taking the question itself seriously. I realized that my response was wrong and have since apologized, publicly, in the comment section of that post. I owe my readers, if I can respond at all, a thoughtful engagement with their issue, and I failed that standard. I will try to do better going forward.
Monday Update: Home Construction Slows and Fed Hikes Rates
There were several important economic data releases last week with a focus on housing and the results from the most recent Fed meeting. The reports showed that housing construction slowed in May, reflecting lower demand for housing due to rising prices and mortgage rates. This will be a relatively quiet week of updates, with only one major report scheduled for release.
Black Bear or Grizzly Bear?
As we discussed yesterday, the bear is here. We talked about how interest rates, especially the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, will be determinative as to how long and deep the downturn will be, but noted that there was really no telling. Today, I want to take a look back at history and see if there are any clues we can look at.
The Bear Is Here
We hit a milestone just recently, although it’s certainly not one we wanted to hit. The S&P 500 stock index is now officially in a bear market, down more than 20 percent from its highs. The Nasdaq, of course, has been in a bear market for some time. It is down more than 20 percent, but that is primarily technology, which is notoriously volatile. The S&P 500, which includes the largest and best-known companies across all industries, is a better indicator of market stress overall. The fact that it has moved into the bear phase signifies significant market and economic stress.