News

Last week, we looked at what inflation actually is—and where it is coming from. As we noted then, three categories (housing, transportation, and food and beverages) account for three-quarters of all spending. So, if we talk about inflation, this is really what we are talking about. As we also noted, those categories have grown faster since the start of 2021, especially transportation. But none of that tells us what will happen over the next year or so. To determine that, we need to take a closer look.

Read More

February’s preliminary durable goods orders report was the only major economic data release last week. The report showed that durable goods orders fell by more than expected during the month, which could be a sign that business spending is starting to slow. This will be a busier week, with scheduled reports providing updates on consumer and manufacturer confidence, personal income, personal spending, and the March jobs report.

Read More

Brad here. As we talk about inflation (and we will have more to say next week), the real question for us, as investors, is what we should do with our portfolios. No one is more qualified to answer that question than Pete Essele, who runs our Preferred Portfolio Services® Select asset management program. Here are his thoughts—have a great weekend!

Read More

We’ve talked a lot about higher interest rates and what they mean for the market. But we haven’t really looked at what is driving those higher interest rates, which is inflation. Of course, you see the stats and the headlines, but as usual, there is very little context or explanation as to what those numbers mean. Today, I want to take a look at what inflation actually is.

Read More

Brad here. Yesterday, I laid out why I am not concerned, in general, about what a yield curve inversion means for the economy, while still being very aware of the increasing risks. Today, Anu Gaggar is taking a more detailed look at what inversions have historically meant for the markets. Although she too sees rising risks, she is also less concerned in the short term—so let’s hope we are right!

Read More

One of the outcomes from the recent Fed meeting, where the Fed decided to raise rates for the first time in years, was a clear plan to continue to raise rates over the next year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell added fuel to the fire yesterday when he said that the Fed was willing to raise rates even faster than the meeting notes suggested. The Fed is now clearly focused on bringing inflation back down, even if it means slowing down the economy.

Read More