We saw a bounce in stock markets for March, but everything was down between 3 percent and 8 percent for the first quarter. The reasons for this were twofold. First, with inflation at a 40-year high, the Fed was forced to raise interest rates. Second, the Russian invasion of Ukraine unsettled markets. Still, there were some positives. Hiring was strong, and business confidence and investment were healthy.
News
Tremors in the Housing Market
The housing market has shown exceptional strength after rebounding from the sharp but brief decline in the early months of the pandemic. Many factors have contributed to this—exceptionally low mortgage rates, aggressive stimulus, and the need for more housing as work and childcare were brought home. Now, all of these factors are diminishing as the cost of living is rising. As a result, the housing market might be heading for a slowdown.
Covid-19 Checkup
For the past couple of weeks, we’ve been talking about two things: the war in Ukraine (and its effects) and inflation and the Fed. These have very much been the hot topics, and deservedly so. But with a lull in the news on both, it’s time to check back in on Covid, which has not gone away.
Will Inflation Remain High?
Last week, we looked at what inflation actually is—and where it is coming from. As we noted then, three categories (housing, transportation, and food and beverages) account for three-quarters of all spending. So, if we talk about inflation, this is really what we are talking about. As we also noted, those categories have grown faster since the start of 2021, especially transportation. But none of that tells us what will happen over the next year or so. To determine that, we need to take a closer look.
Monday Update: Is Business Spending Starting to Slow?
February’s preliminary durable goods orders report was the only major economic data release last week. The report showed that durable goods orders fell by more than expected during the month, which could be a sign that business spending is starting to slow. This will be a busier week, with scheduled reports providing updates on consumer and manufacturer confidence, personal income, personal spending, and the March jobs report.
Protecting Portfolios Against Inflation
Brad here. As we talk about inflation (and we will have more to say next week), the real question for us, as investors, is what we should do with our portfolios. No one is more qualified to answer that question than Pete Essele, who runs our Preferred Portfolio Services® Select asset management program. Here are his thoughts—have a great weekend!