I have been holding off on commenting on the Russia-Ukraine conflict until some sort of resolution occurred. Lots of things could have happened, and we could drive ourselves crazy worrying about the possibilities. But now something has happened, and it is time to take a look.
News
Monday Update: Omicron Economic Impact Less Than Feared
Last week was full of important economic updates, many of which showed that the economic impact from the Omicron variant was relatively muted compared to earlier waves of the pandemic. The January retail sales report was a highlight, as sales growth experienced its best month since last March. This will be a quieter week for reports, with only three major releases scheduled that will provide updates on consumer confidence, personal income and spending, and durable goods orders.
More Stock Market Turbulence: Could It Get Worse?
Yesterday was another bad one for the market, with the S&P 500 down more than 2 percent. The S&P as a whole is now down more than 8 percent from the peak, with the Dow down about 5 percent, and the Nasdaq down more than 13 percent as of this writing. What is going on—and will it get worse?
Investor Expectations Vs. Reality
This will be a quick post, as I am finishing up a Commonwealth conference. As usual, it has been a wonderful chance to see old friends, make new ones, and have a great time in a beautiful place. It was as I expected, given the great people—and even better meeting planners—who make Commonwealth so special. In this case, at least, my expectations were well-founded and have been fully met. But today I want to talk about expectations in a more general way.
A Broader and Deeper Look at Interest Rates
One of the major current risks to the market is the Fed’s tightening of policy. Much has been written about the Fed’s plans to raise rates, to start downsizing its balance sheet, and so forth. But what has been missing so far is the fact that many of the changes have already been factored in by the market—and what the market seems to be expecting is not really in line with the headlines.
Wordle, Investing, and Russia/Ukraine: What’s the Connection?
Three hot topics at once. Talk about efficiency! Beyond efficiency, though, I do think there is a fairly deep connection here—and one that is worth talking about right now.