Wow. I have rarely been so wrong about an economic report—or so glad to be wrong. And it wasn’t just me. The range of expected values for today’s jobs report was roughly between -400,000 and +250,000. Everyone was very wrong as it came in at +467,000. This was a much, much larger-than-expected gain, and it clearly shows there is something going on that analysts are missing.
News
Signs Say Terrible Jobs Report Ahead
The official jobs report comes out this Friday. Expectations are for another slowdown, with about 175,000 jobs added, down from 199,000 in December. With everything that is going on, especially the number of people who have the Omicron variant and are presumably not at work, that would be a great result. Unfortunately, the real number is likely to be well below that and will probably be negative—maybe significantly so.
Russia-Ukraine Tensions: Implications for Investors
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are showing no signs of abating. The geopolitical implications of further escalation could be quite dire and complicated. Although the deadlock may be resolved through diplomacy, we are watching for the impact on asset prices if the conflict escalates. Energy and commodity markets could be in the immediate line of fire, but repercussions may also be felt in the region’s equity and fixed income markets. Finally, if the situation worsens, the ripple effects could be more broad-based and have an impact on global inflation expectations and monetary policy.
Market Thoughts for February 2022 [Video]
After a strong close to 2021, markets pulled back to start the year, with U.S. indices dropping between 3 and 10 percent. On the medical front, the Omicron wave continued. As case growth rose to new highs, consumer and business confidence took a hit. Finally, January reports showed inflation at a 40-year high, and the Fed announced a rate hike in March was very likely.
Monday Update: Economic Growth Accelerates in Q4 2021
There were a number of important economic updates last week, with a focus on consumer confidence, the Fed’s January meeting, and the advanced estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth. The first look at GDP growth in the fourth quarter was a highlight, as the report showed that the economic recovery picked up speed to finish out the year. This will be another busy week of updates, with reports on business confidence and January employment serving as highlights to come.
Will Chinese Equities Roar in the Year of the Tiger?
On February 1, China bids farewell to the Year of the Ox and rings in the Year of the Tiger. The ox symbolizes prosperity, diligence, and perseverance. In 2021, this symbol was apt, as Chinese economic policy shifted from “growth at all costs” to “common prosperity” and the country diligently persevered through many regulatory changes. Chinese equities were collateral damage in the process. As the Year of the Tiger rolls in, Chinese equities could remain volatile but purr stronger.
Director of Operations
Ashley has been working in the customer service field since she started her first job at age 16. For the past ten years she worked in an office setting handling accounts payable and receivable as well as some receptionist work. She is very excited to learn more about the investment field.
Alec joined Riverstone after starting out his post college career on the operations side of an international logistics company working as an account executive. Graduating with a BA in Economics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, he quickly developed a strong interest in the financial world. A lifetime resident of the Chicagoland area, Alec is an avid fan of his hometown sports teams. He is also an enthusiast of outdoor activities like fishing, camping, and hiking whenever possible.
Carol has a wide variety of experiences and has worked mainly with not-for-profit organizations. She spent 20 years in fundraising and 15 years teaching in the Illinois school system while she raised her younger children. Carol lives in Sugar Grove with her husband, Ron, and their Golden Retriever, Charley. She has four children and two grandchildren. When she’s not working, Carol enjoys spending time with friends and family, running, fishing, bible study, and watching her grandchildren play sports.
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