One of the key sources of uncertainty that has driven the market pullback over the past weeks has been interest rates. Specifically, the rise in rates—and the fear that the Fed would tighten further—pulled growth stocks down, including many in the tech sector, and generated significant uncertainty around where the economy was going.
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An Update on the 100K Project
I see the market is bouncing back a bit, and I know the headlines of the day will revolve around the Fed meeting and press conference, which are still a couple of hours away and I will cover tomorrow. So, let’s do something a bit different today. Let’s take a look at my 100K project.
More Market Volatility Ahead?
Yesterday gave a great example of what I meant in Friday’s post when I said the stock market was not crashing. For those who missed it, the U.S. markets dropped sharply during the day, with the Nasdaq down almost 5 percent on the day, only to rebound at day’s end and land in the green. This kind of reversal is rare and signaled that—at the depths of the decline yesterday—a number of investors saw enough value in those prices to step in and buy.
Monday Update: Existing Home Sales Hit 15-Year High in 2021
Last week saw the release of a number of important economic updates, with a focus on the housing sector. The existing home sales report was a highlight, as sales of existing homes showed notable year-over-year growth in 2021. This week will be busy once again. The highlights to come include reports on consumer confidence, the results from the January FOMC meeting, and the first look at fourth-quarter GDP growth.
The Stock Market Is Not Crashing
Yesterday, I got two emails requesting a response to the current market pullback. I received another couple of emails referring to a prediction (by a very well-known investor) that the stock market was now inevitably poised for a 50 percent decline. Clearly, the anxiety level is high, which makes sense given the multitude of worries and things that could go wrong. We have the Omicron wave, inflation, interest rates, a potential war in Ukraine, and on and on. Is this the end of days—again?
Assessing Omicron’s Economic Damage
Now that we’re two years into the pandemic, analysts have a lot more context than we did at the start. We have seen multiple waves of the virus, have watched the economy react in real time, and have a sense of what the policy responses are likely to be. As such, we could look back on history for some guidance as to what was likely to happen with the winter Delta wave—and that guidance by and large worked.