The panic of the day is the news about interest rates. The headlines state (correctly) that rates have moved up sharply in recent days. They state (correctly) that stocks have pulled back, noting this fact is due to that increase (which is possibly but not necessarily true). And they state (incorrectly, I believe) that higher rates are going to derail the economy and the markets, in that order.
News
Monday Update (on Tuesday): Retail Sales Slide to End the Year
There were a number of important economic data reports last week, with a focus on December’s inflation and retail sales reports. Retail sales came in well below expectations, as inflation and the Omicron variant weighed on spending during the month. This will be another busy week for updates, with a focus on the housing sector.
Will We See a Supply Glut in 2022?
The year 2021 was all about supply shortages—from semiconductor chips to construction materials and everything in between. As supply chain logjams ease in 2022, some goods will get back to a normal balance. Others may swing to an oversupply. Sectors and industries that benefit from economic activity in which supply rises to meet demand may continue to reward investors in the near term. The business cycles for some companies may be at or near peak, however, so investors must watch for potential signs of a downturn.
A Preview of Q4 2021 Earnings
We are just starting earnings season, when companies will be reporting how much money they made in the fourth quarter of last year. This is always an important time, as stock values depend crucially on how much money companies make. But this season will be especially important.
Monthly Market Risk Update: January 2022
My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!
Economic Risk Factor Update: January 2022
My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!