December was a solid month for both the economy and the markets but a difficult month for medical news. The Omicron wave of the COVID-19 virus drove new case counts to all-time highs at year-end. Job growth kept improving, however, and consumer confidence and spending also continued to grow. Business confidence and investment remained strong, and the markets reacted to the positive news. The economic news continued to be strong through year-end, although we should note it was based on backward-looking data. The outlook for January is more mixed. The Omicron wave is likely to start showing up in the economic data. It’s quite possible it will also influence the markets.
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Market Thoughts for January 2022 [Video]
The year closed on a strong note, with the Dow and S&P showing gains. The Nasdaq struggled a bit, but it ended December in the green. On the medical front, the omicron variant drove COVID cases to new highs. Still, the economic data kept getting better. Consumer confidence numbers bounced back, and consumer spending kept growing. Further, business confidence and investment remain very high.
Monday Update: Busy Week of Updates Ahead
There were no major economic data releases last week. This week, however, we’ll see a number of important updates to start the new year. The focus will be on business confidence, the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting, the international trade report, and the December employment report.
Best Wishes for the New Year
As we close out the new year, it has been one to remember. Or, possibly, better to forget. In my own case, we had planned on having friends over for the evening. But, unfortunately, one was exposed to COVID, and then we found out late this morning that we had been exposed to COVID as well. This far, all the tests are negative—so wish us luck. But the risks are definitely on my mind at the moment.
Reflections from the Massachusetts Conference for Women
For the third year in a row, Commonwealth sponsored the Massachusetts Conference for Women. Since 2005, this annual conference has been providing connection, motivation, inspiration, networking opportunities, and skills-building workshops for thousands of women. As we did in 2020 and 2019, my colleague Giovanna Zaffina and I are sharing our experiences and thoughts.
Recessions: A Capitalist Perspective
Is it possible we can learn something about a healthy economy from the National Forest Service (NFS)? For decades, the forest service had a policy of extinguishing brush and wildfires at all costs. Its main goals were to prevent fires and to suppress them as quickly as possible if they started. Over time, however, the NFS came to realize that forest fires have a role in nature, one that is necessary for healthy ecosystems to take form. The same may be true for recessions and the long-term health of our economy.