This will be a short update as I am in the airport headed home from Commonwealth’s Founder’s Club conference. As usual, it was a wonderful experience—good company, great activities, and a spectacular setting. But what struck me at this conference, in particular, was the value of personal contact.
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Monthly Market Risk Update: October 2021
My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!
Economic Risk Factor Update: October 2021
My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!
Monday Update: Hiring Slows in September
Last week saw the release of a number of important economic updates, with a focus on international trade, service sector confidence, and the September employment report. Although the employment report showed that hiring continued to slow in September, reports from previous months saw upward revisions that partially offset the slowdown. This will be another busy week for updates, with reports to come on September’s inflation and retail sales, as well as a first look at consumer confidence in October.
Global Central Banks Join the Fed Bandwagon
Given the overarching role of the U.S. in the world economy, it is no surprise that when the Fed sneezes, central banks around the world catch a cold. During the so-called taper tantrum of 2013, the Fed’s unexpected talk of plans to slow down its bond purchase program resulted in higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, which caused the capital pipelines of emerging markets to freeze. Today, with a tenuous global recovery underway and the threat of the pandemic hanging on, central banks around the world are watching the actions of an increasingly hawkish Fed with hawk eyes (no pun intended). At the same time, we’re seeing global policy divergences as economies emerge from the pandemic environment at different speeds and face different challenges. For investors, this environment could present country-specific opportunities in fixed income, equities, and currencies.
Do Investors Need to Keep an Eye on Climate Change?
I got a question last week that I thought was excellent: how does climate change do when we apply the same set of crisis tests we did to Evergrande and the great financial crisis (GFC)? It may seem to be a political question—and quite possibly it was intended as such. But in my mind, applying this set of nonpolitical tests is a great way to take it out of the realm of politics, where I have no special expertise, and into the realm of economics and data analysis, where I do. Today, let’s take a nonpolitical look, based on the data, at whether climate change is something that we, as investors, should be keeping an eye on.