I got a question last week that I thought was excellent: how does climate change do when we apply the same set of crisis tests we did to Evergrande and the great financial crisis (GFC)? It may seem to be a political question—and quite possibly it was intended as such. But in my mind, applying this set of nonpolitical tests is a great way to take it out of the realm of politics, where I have no special expertise, and into the realm of economics and data analysis, where I do. Today, let’s take a nonpolitical look, based on the data, at whether climate change is something that we, as investors, should be keeping an eye on.
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The Most Important Jobs Report?
I watch sports only occasionally, but in the past year or two, I have gotten increasingly into watching pro football—probably as a result of being bored at home during the pandemic and the drama around the turn of the Patriots dynasty. I have to admit, there are some terrific athletes out there. There’s Brady, of course, but many others as well. It has been great to come back to something I enjoyed as a kid.
Monday Update (on Tuesday): Personal Spending Beats Expectations in August
Last week saw a number of important economic updates, with a focus on durable goods orders, consumer and manufacturer confidence, and August personal income and spending. Durable goods orders and personal spending were highlights, as both increased by more than expected in August. This will be another busy week for updates, with news on international trade, service sector confidence, and September employment to come.
Market Thoughts for October 2021 [Video]
September was a bad month for the markets. In the U.S., all three major indices were down. Developed markets dropped, and emerging markets did worst of all. These declines resulted from the weakening of the economic data, driven by the spread of the Delta wave of the virus. Job growth was down, layoffs trended up, and consumer confidence dropped.
Looking Back at the Markets in Q3 and Ahead to Q4 2021
After a great start to the quarter in July and August, September was when the storms hit. Here in the U.S., markets pulled back significantly. The Dow declined by 4.2 percent for the month and 1.46 percent for the quarter. The S&P went down by even more for the month, at a 4.65 percent decline, although it gained 0.58 percent for the quarter. Finally, the Nasdaq trailed by even more, at a 5.27 percent monthly drop and a 0.23 percent loss for the quarter. Abroad, international markets were also hit, with developed markets down for both the month and quarter, at 2.9 percent and 0.45 percent, respectively. Emerging markets dropped 3.94 percent for the month and 7.97 percent for the quarter.
Putting the Great Financial Crisis to the Test
Today, I want to apply the analysis we laid out yesterday to the great financial crisis (GFC). The idea is to see whether it would have given us some advance warning of just how bad that crisis got. If so, the analysis might be useful in identifying future crises that are actually worth worrying about.
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Ashley has been working in the customer service field since she started her first job at age 16. For the past ten years she worked in an office setting handling accounts payable and receivable as well as some receptionist work. She is very excited to learn more about the investment field.
Alec joined Riverstone after starting out his post college career on the operations side of an international logistics company working as an account executive. Graduating with a BA in Economics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, he quickly developed a strong interest in the financial world. A lifetime resident of the Chicagoland area, Alec is an avid fan of his hometown sports teams. He is also an enthusiast of outdoor activities like fishing, camping, and hiking whenever possible.
Carol has a wide variety of experiences and has worked mainly with not-for-profit organizations. She spent 20 years in fundraising and 15 years teaching in the Illinois school system while she raised her younger children. Carol lives in Sugar Grove with her husband, Ron, and their Golden Retriever, Charley. She has four children and two grandchildren. When she’s not working, Carol enjoys spending time with friends and family, running, fishing, bible study, and watching her grandchildren play sports.
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