News

We are now entering the phase of the market cycle where worries start to proliferate. We’ve already talked about Evergrande, supply chain issues, rising interest rates, and so on—and the risks for all of these things are real. As the situations evolve, though, each of these categories and others will present themselves in different ways. For example, looking at China, we have Evergrande, the demographic rollover there, trade and competition issues with the U.S., and many more. Even as one issue (Evergrande) starts to recede from investor consciousness, others will rise again.

Read More

This post will be on the short side, as I am leaving Laguna Niguel in California at the end of the Commonwealth Summit Club conference. I wanted to take some time, however, to comment on something that has been forcing itself to my attention all week: the supply chain issues that are driving much of the current inflation concerns.

Read More

Last week saw a number of important economic updates, with a focus on the housing sector and the FOMC rate decision from the Fed’s September meeting. The housing market showed signs of continued growth, as both housing starts and building permits increased by more than expected in August. This will be another busy week for updates. Highlights will include reports on durable goods orders, consumer and manufacturer confidence, and August personal income and spending.

Read More

“There is an art to science, and a science in art; the two are not enemies, but different aspects of the whole.” — Isaac Asimov

Read More

After the past several crises, some real and some manufactured, we are now on our way to the next one: the debt ceiling. To pay for the spending Congress has authorized, the Treasury needs to borrow more money. But it can’t borrow more money because Congress has said there is a ceiling to how much it can borrow, and the Treasury has hit that ceiling. So, Congress has essentially forbidden the Treasury to borrow enough money to pay for the things that Congress has said the Treasury has to pay for. If this makes no sense to you, well, I agree. But this is where we are, again. We have seen this movie several times before.

Read More

Here we are on the cusp of the end of the most important Fed meeting since, well, the last meeting. The headlines are going back and forth as to whether Chair Powell will announce tapering (i.e., slower Fed purchases of bonds). The consensus is no. But if not, what will he do? All is uncertain.

Read More